Lula's Win Complicates Trump's Plans for a Latin American Bloc

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva used his election victory speech to send a message to Washington. "Brazil will not accept being anyone's backyard," the left-wing leader declared.

Foreign policy rarely decides a domestic vote, and this one was no exception. Still, Lula's resistance to what he has called US interference in Brazilian affairs tapped into a patriotic mood and became a useful campaign tool. It also fit his image as a former union leader who confronts powerful figures.

Oddly, the stance appears to have won him some respect from President Donald Trump. "I like Lula, we get along well," Trump said after the result. "I didn't take sides," he added, though he also called the election "terrible" and "rigged." Trump never explicitly endorsed Lula's rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, who has refused to accept the outcome even though the Supreme Electoral Court found no evidence of irregularities. Trump was, however, a close ally of Flavio's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

About a year ago, relations were at their lowest. Lula said then that he had "no relationship" with Trump and no plan to call him. Trump had imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil, largely as a political response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, which the US president described as a "witch-hunt." Lula responded with speeches about Brazilian sovereignty, criticism of US involvement in the judicial process, and a blue cap reading "Brazil belongs to Brazilians." His approval ratings rose. He also accused the Bolsonaro family, who had lobbied for the tariffs, of being unpatriotic, and even some in the agricultural lobby, usually strong Bolsonaro supporters, thought he had a point.

The US eventually reduced the tariffs, though they have since risen again. The two leaders then spoke at the United Nations and later met in the Oval Office, where Trump called the talks "very good" and Lula said he left "very satisfied."

Even so, the result is a setback for Trump's regional strategy. Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru have all elected presidents closely aligned with his administration, and he has sought to use them to establish US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, a approach he calls the "Donroe Doctrine." Christopher Sabatini of Chatham House said Trump saw Brazil as the "10th and biggest prize" after Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round. Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, was expected to join the "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking, and holds the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals after China.

Several issues could reignite tensions during Lula's new term. Earlier this year Brazil accused the US of trying to cast doubt on its electoral system and denied visas to two state department officials, and the US called the claim "baseless" and revoked the Brazilian ambassador's visa. Lula has also opposed US military action in the region, including the seizure of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and he criticised Washington for designating Brazil's two major gangs as terrorist organisations.

Technology is another flashpoint. Lula's campaign accused Meta of favouring Flavio Bolsonaro. Meta denied it but admitted that moderation issues and technical errors wrongly removed some posts or limited their reach. Lula's supporters shared his messages through a WhatsApp group of 10 million people. The Trump administration is also unhappy with Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, which it sees as taking business from Visa and Mastercard.

Tensions may be overstated, though. The US remains Brazil's second-biggest trading partner after China, and the two leaders currently get on. How long that lasts will depend on how far Washington tries to intervene in Brazilian affairs, and how forcefully Lula answers.