Haredi Faction and Bennett Could Hold Keys to Israel's Next Government, Political Assessments Say

As Israel's election approaches, assessments within the political establishment suggest that Agudat Yisrael, the three-MK haredi faction headed by Yitzhak Goldknopf, could offer some form of backing to a government led by a member of the current opposition.

With less than a day left before voting starts, political figures are reviewing a range of outcomes. These include building a government that relies on the support of Arab parties, or sending the country back to the polls for another election.

One idea under discussion is that Agudat Yisrael would back an opposition-led government in return for budgetary agreements. Even that kind of deal, however, would not necessarily remove the need for votes from the Arab parties.

The notion of cooperation between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc is not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring fresh political options, among them possible cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot.

Those discussions unfolded amid friction inside United Torah Judaism, especially between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah, over the haredi military draft and over relations with Netanyahu. According to the report, Agudat Yisrael voiced disappointment with how the coalition has behaved, while Degel Hatorah signaled despair and a lack of confidence in Netanyahu and his government. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando, expressing reservations about keeping the commitment to the bloc led by Netanyahu, added to the uncertainty over ties between the haredi parties and Likud.

Goldknopf nonetheless faces a serious obstacle. His voters are largely identified with the Right, and assessments cited in the report say any sign that he would back a government led by change bloc parties could push some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention is also turning to former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who might decide the shape of the next government if neither bloc wins a majority large enough to govern. One possibility raised in political circles is that Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government if neither side reaches the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.

This is viewed as a remote scenario. Some nonetheless believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc able to take such a step, given his background on the Right. It would still require him to shift his base of support, and the makeup of his current party would complicate the move.

A similar step by Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned, particularly because he previously joined a Netanyahu-led government as defense minister. But the assessment presented holds that Liberman is currently far from such a move because of personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

The question of which politician might be willing to move their political base could become a central issue in coalition negotiations. For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments, not agreements reached between the parties.